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The polls are open for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the far-right leader Geert Wilders and his PVV party may repeat their win the most seats, although analysts believe PVV is unlikely of joining the future coalition.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that collapsed within a year, is now slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 MPs in the 150-member parliament.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it secured 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in June over a dispute concerning his radical immigration plans.

Major Parties and Projections

Following a election period focused on topics such as immigration, medical expenses, and the country's severe housing crisis, the left-leaning GL/PvdA coalition, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a near second, projected to win between 22 to 26 parliamentary seats.

Also performing well is the centrist D66, projected to boost its representation nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is expected to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 and 22.

Members of the previous government – comprising the PVV, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and NSC – are all projected to lose seats, with several facing heavy declines.

Voting Process and Political Division

Under the Netherlands' electoral system, securing just 0.67% of the vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include senior-focused parties, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter the legislature.

This high degree of division means that no one party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

Wilders has stated that "democracy will be dead" in the country if the his party becomes the biggest group yet is excluded from government. But, opponents and experts argue that first place does not guarantee government participation and that any governing alliance with a parliamentary majority is democratically valid.

While the election result is hard to predict and government negotiations could take months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based alliance led by either the centre-left or moderate right.

Voting Process

Voting locations, such as those in the miniature city Madurodam in the capital and the Anne Frank house in the capital city, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will conclude at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is anticipated shortly after closing time.

After the vote, an official negotiator will explore potential governing alliances that could secure enough support in the legislature. Prospective coalition members will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must face a vote of confidence in the house before assuming power.