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Just 48 hours remaining.

England's opening match in Australia begins on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be decided.

It’s challenging to score runs, right?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be wondering why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the pre-series discussion has focused on the apparent challenge of batting successfully, particularly for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

There are two reasons for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the pitches produced in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Speed and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for difficult batting conditions.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

An updated model of the Kookaburra was introduced six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam is a much bigger weapon than swing in this country.

Since the new Kookaburra, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, performances of batters can be the deciding factor, and the reverse is true.

Should this series be dominated by the ball, a batter could have the opportunity to be the key factor between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australia seamers?

On this occasion, England have arrived in Australia with their pace attack mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones affected by fitness issues.

Captain Pat Cummins will miss at least the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is unavailable for an unknown period because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Starc were first paired as a trio for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in home Tests.

Australia have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 wickets in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Boland, other members of the backup squad have performed well.

Neser, Richardson and Pattinson all average below 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

The past two times they have competed in Australia without the pair, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, outcomes have remained strong – England should pay attention.

Challenging Openings

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

Not anymore.

Ever since Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley were paired at the top of the England order at the end of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a combination has been a reason in Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who famously struck the first ball of the previous Ashes for a boundary, has also been identified as having the technique for Australian conditions.

His batting average increases when the pace increases.

By contrast, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, still seeking to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has walked out with five various openers in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth in 16 on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening combo.

It is not just the opening pair that has caused problems for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was shifted to open for the World Test Championship final, then dropped entirely.

Domestic form has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order average a collective of 25.37.

Only the top threes of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is one area where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to ever play.

England's Shoaib Bashir is a moderately successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Will Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the home team to want Lyon at the front, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

During that period, slow bowlers have averaged almost 44 in this country, though Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is physically getting on to bowl.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five matches against the Indian team, it was half that number.

Test matches in Australia are 25% shorter since the updated ball was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Favorable Conditions?

England have a unfortunate tendency of being defeated in an away Ashes before Father Christmas has loaded his sleigh.

Traditionally, the series traditionally started in Brisbane, where they have not won since 1986.

Recently, that has been followed by a day-night Test in Adelaide Oval.

The visitors have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have won 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have played at on 14 occasions since 1970 and won only one time, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a rearranged order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the famous Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It is still a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the location for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia competed in a day-night Test at the Brisbane, they were surprised by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing daytime Tests at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a new opportunity at beginning an overseas series positively, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India the previous year.

Each match at the new ground has been won by the team setting a target.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink cricket ball does not behave very differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|